Brentford 0–0 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Brentford

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crystal Palace

2/12/2022

Premier League · Round 25Brentford Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Brentford44%

×Draw25%

Crystal Palace31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrentfordExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.24

Brentford

1.54

Crystal Palace

1.24

Brentford creates 24% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 33 away

1.82

creates per match

1.19

1.29

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Brentford

1.82

Crystal Palace

1.19

allows per match

Brentford

1.29

Crystal Palace

1.26

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Brentford-0.18scores less

Crystal Palace-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Brentford or draw

69%

Brentford or Crystal Palace

75%

Draw or Crystal Palace

56%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+

22%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals

79%

Brentford 2+ goals

45%

Brentford 3+ goals

20%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

71%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

35%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)

59%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.82 + Crystal Palace defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.54

Crystal Palace attack 1.19 + Brentford defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Brentford scores more

44%

level

25%

Crystal Palace scores more

31%

Brentford at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

E. Pinnock

Brentford · D

7.9

Match Events

16'

Ethan PinnockPenalty cancelled

42'

Sergi Canós

61'

J. Dasilva← V. Janelt

66'

J. McArthur← W. Hughes

72'

J. Mateta← O. Édouard

77'

M. Olise← J. Ayew

82'

S. Ghoddos← Y. Wissa

86'

S. Baptiste← Sergi Canós

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrentfordCrystal

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots6

3Corners9

10Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots6

2On Target3

5Off Target2

2Blocked1

8Inside Box4

1Outside Box2

Passing

43%Possession57%

377Total Passes504

260Accurate Passes390

69%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0