Brentford 2–1 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Brentford

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aston Villa

M. Rasmussen 83'

Y. Wissa 42'

D. Ings 16'

1/2/2022

Premier League · Round 21Brentford Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Brentford50%

×Draw24%

Aston Villa27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrentfordExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.22

Brentford

1.75

Aston Villa

1.22

Brentford creates 43% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 32 away

1.85

creates per match

1.14

1.30

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Brentford

1.85

Aston Villa

1.14

allows per match

Brentford

1.30

Aston Villa

1.64

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Brentford-0.23scores less

Aston Villa+0.02on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Brentford or draw

73%

Brentford or Aston Villa

76%

Draw or Aston Villa

50%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+

27%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals

83%

Brentford 2+ goals

52%

Brentford 3+ goals

25%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

70%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

34%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)

65%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.30 · 29 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.64 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.85 + Aston Villa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.75

Aston Villa attack 1.14 + Brentford defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Brentford scores more

50%

level

24%

Aston Villa scores more

27%

Brentford at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

M. Rasmussen

Brentford · M

7.9

Match Events

16'

D. Ings↳ E. Buendía

30'

Jacob Ramsey

31'

Frank Onyeka

42'

Y. Wissa↳ M. Rasmussen

54'

S. Ghoddos← Sergi Canós

61'

S. Baptiste← M. Jensen

69'

77'

80'

80'

83'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrentfordAston

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots16

3Corners7

17Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots16

4On Target5

6Off Target6

0Blocked5

6Inside Box10

4Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

400Total Passes491

299Accurate Passes402

75%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4