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Bregalnica Štip vs Vardar Skopje — First League 2019

Bregalnica Štip
Bregalnica Štip
Preview
15:00
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
10/17/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 10
39%
Bregalnica Štip
model favours
39%28%33%

Vardar Skopje score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Bregalnica Štip39%
×Draw28%
Vardar Skopje33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bregalnica Štip
1.25
Vardar Skopje
1.12

Bregalnica Štip creates 12% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 78 away

creates per match

Bregalnica Štip
1.37
Vardar Skopje
1.14

allows per match

Bregalnica Štip
1.10
Vardar Skopje
1.13

finishing

Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bregalnica Štip ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bregalnica Štip or draw
67%
Bregalnica Štip or Vardar Skopje
72%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
61%

Winning margin

Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+
17%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals
71%
Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals
36%
Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals
13%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
67%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
31%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)
54%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bregalnica Štip at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 49 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bregalnica Štip attack 1.37 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Vardar Skopje attack 1.14 + Bregalnica Štip defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bregalnica Štip scores more
39%
level
28%
Vardar Skopje scores more
33%

Bregalnica Štip at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bregalnica Štip will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Štip
WWDWW
Skopje
WLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bregalnica Štip host Vardar Skopje

October 17, 2026: Bregalnica Štip take on Vardar Skopje in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.