Bregalnica Štip 2–1 Plačkovica: Result & Stats

Bregalnica Štip

FT

2 – 1

Plačkovica

10/26/2019

Second League · East - 10Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Bregalnica Štip74%

×Draw16%

Plačkovica10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bregalnica ŠtipExpected goals in this matchPlačkovica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.73

Bregalnica Štip

2.38

Plačkovica

0.73

Bregalnica Štip creates 226% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 24 away

2.52

creates per match

0.88

0.58

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Bregalnica Štip

2.52

Plačkovica

0.88

allows per match

Bregalnica Štip

0.58

Plačkovica

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par

Plačkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bregalnica Štip ↓

Plačkovica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bregalnica Štip or draw

90%

Bregalnica Štip or Plačkovica

84%

Draw or Plačkovica

26%

Winning margin

Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+

51%

Plačkovica wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals

91%

Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals

68%

Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals

42%

Plačkovica 1+ goals

52%

Plačkovica 2+ goals

17%

Plačkovica 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)

88%

Plačkovica (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bregalnica Štip at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.58 · 52 matches

Plačkovica away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.25 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bregalnica Štip attack 2.52 + Plačkovica defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Plačkovica attack 0.88 + Bregalnica Štip defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Bregalnica Štip scores more

74%

level

16%

Plačkovica scores more

10%

Bregalnica Štip at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Bregalnica Štip will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff