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Brazos Valley vs Texas United — USL League Two 2018

Brazos Valley
Brazos Valley
PST
00:30
Texas United
Texas United
6/5/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 20Nutrabolt Stadium (Bryan, Texas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Brazos Valley38%
×Draw21%
Texas United41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brazos Valley
1.93
Texas United
2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 24 away

creates per match

Brazos Valley
2.32
Texas United
2.50

allows per match

Brazos Valley
1.55
Texas United
1.54

finishing

Brazos Valley+0.00on par
Texas United+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brazos Valley ↓

Texas United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Brazos Valley or draw
59%
Brazos Valley or Texas United
79%
Draw or Texas United
62%

Winning margin

Brazos Valley wins by 2+
20%
Texas United wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Brazos Valley 1+ goals
85%
Brazos Valley 2+ goals
57%
Brazos Valley 3+ goals
30%
Texas United 1+ goals
87%
Texas United 2+ goals
60%
Texas United 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Brazos Valley (draw refunded)
48%
Texas United (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brazos Valley at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.55 · 47 matches

Texas United away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brazos Valley attack 2.32 + Texas United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.93

Texas United attack 2.50 + Brazos Valley defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Brazos Valley scores more
38%
level
21%
Texas United scores more
41%

Texas United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Texas United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Brazos Valley host Texas United

June 5, 2020: Brazos Valley take on Texas United in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Brazos Valley host Texas United at Nutrabolt Stadium (Bryan, Texas).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.