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Bray Wanderers vs Cabinteely — First Division 2019

Bray Wanderers
Bray Wanderers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cabinteely
Cabinteely
4/26/2019First DivisionFirst Division · Round 10Carlisle Grounds (Bray)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Bray Wanderers44%
×Draw24%
Cabinteely32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bray Wanderers
1.60
Cabinteely
1.34

Bray Wanderers creates 19% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bray Wanderers
1.70
Cabinteely
1.39

allows per match

Bray Wanderers
1.29
Cabinteely
1.50

finishing

Bray Wanderers+0.00on par
Cabinteely+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bray Wanderers ↓

Cabinteely →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bray Wanderers or draw
68%
Bray Wanderers or Cabinteely
76%
Draw or Cabinteely
56%

Winning margin

Bray Wanderers wins by 2+
22%
Cabinteely wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bray Wanderers 1+ goals
80%
Bray Wanderers 2+ goals
47%
Bray Wanderers 3+ goals
22%
Cabinteely 1+ goals
74%
Cabinteely 2+ goals
39%
Cabinteely 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bray Wanderers (draw refunded)
58%
Cabinteely (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bray Wanderers at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.29 · 123 matches

Cabinteely away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bray Wanderers attack 1.70 + Cabinteely defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Cabinteely attack 1.39 + Bray Wanderers defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bray Wanderers scores more
44%
level
24%
Cabinteely scores more
32%

Bray Wanderers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bray Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bray Wanderers vs Cabinteely

Bray Wanderers and Cabinteely drew 1-1 in First Division on April 26, 2019.

The match was played at Carlisle Grounds (Bray).