Bray Wanderers 2–2 Athlone Town: Result & Stats

Bray Wanderers

AET

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Athlone Town

C. Omorehiomwan 90+2'

D. Hand 63' (OG)

G. Fuentes 24'

D. Ebbe 11'

11/2/2024

First Division · Promotion Play-offs - FinalsDalymount Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Bray Wanderers52%

×Draw23%

Athlone Town25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bray WanderersExpected goals in this matchAthlone Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.17

Bray Wanderers

1.79

Athlone Town

1.17

Bray Wanderers creates 53% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 118 away

1.69

creates per match

1.04

1.30

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Bray Wanderers

1.69

Athlone Town

1.04

allows per match

Bray Wanderers

1.30

Athlone Town

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bray Wanderers+0.00on par

Athlone Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bray Wanderers ↓

Athlone Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bray Wanderers or draw

75%

Bray Wanderers or Athlone Town

77%

Draw or Athlone Town

48%

Winning margin

Bray Wanderers wins by 2+

29%

Athlone Town wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bray Wanderers 1+ goals

83%

Bray Wanderers 2+ goals

53%

Bray Wanderers 3+ goals

26%

Athlone Town 1+ goals

69%

Athlone Town 2+ goals

33%

Athlone Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bray Wanderers (draw refunded)

68%

Athlone Town (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bray Wanderers at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.30 · 121 matches

Athlone Town away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.89 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bray Wanderers attack 1.69 + Athlone Town defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.79

Athlone Town attack 1.04 + Bray Wanderers defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bray Wanderers scores more

52%

level

23%

Athlone Town scores more

25%

Bray Wanderers at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bray Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

11'

15'

24'

46'

B. Feeney← Guillermo Almirall

57'

G. Tetteh

63'

D. HandOwn goal

69'

A. Babatund← L. Gaxha

69'

S. Forbes← K. Robinson

80'

B. O'Neill← H. Groome

80'

P. McGregor← D. Ebbe

83'

85'

B. O'Neill

85'

J. Campion-Hinds← G. Tetteh

87'

90+2'

C. Omorehiomwan

97'

105+2'

A. Kizenga← C. Knight

Bray

Athlone

🥅

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: L. Fitzgerald

15'▲C. Knight←▼E. Osam

46'▲B. Feeney←▼Guillermo Almirall

80'▲B. O'Neill←▼H. Groome

105+2'▲A. Kizenga←▼C. Knight

Bray Wanderers substitutes

KnightFeeneyO'NeillKizengaMcGloneCooneyKnightMcGuinness

Manager: Dário Castelo

69'▲A. Babatund←▼L. Gaxha

69'▲S. Forbes←▼K. Robinson

80'▲P. McGregor←▼D. Ebbe

85'▲J. Campion-Hinds←▼G. Tetteh

Athlone Town substitutes

BabatundForbesMcGregorCampion-HindsTrainorMartin-ConwayHuynhMcHughRubinstein

First Division: Bray Wanderers 2–2 Athlone Town

Bray Wanderers and Athlone Town drew 2-2 in First Division on November 2, 2024.

Goals: D. Ebbe (11'), G. Fuentes (24'), D. Hand (63' o.g.), C. Omorehiomwan (90+2').

The match was played at Dalymount Park in Dublin.

Bray Wanderers vs Athlone Town — First Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First Division: Bray Wanderers 2–2 Athlone Town