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Bravos do Maquis FC vs Sagrada Esperança — Girabola 2019

Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
FT
1 – 0
Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
8/24/2019GirabolaGirabola · Round 2Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe (Moxico)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC43%
×Draw31%
Sagrada Esperança27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.14
Sagrada Esperança
0.84

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 104 away

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.30
Sagrada Esperança
0.92

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
0.76
Sagrada Esperança
0.97

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par
Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

Sagrada Esperança →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw
73%
Bravos do Maquis FC or Sagrada Esperança
69%
Draw or Sagrada Esperança
57%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
18%
Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
68%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
32%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
11%
Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
57%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
21%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
61%
Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.76 · 104 matches

Sagrada Esperança away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.97 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.30 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sagrada Esperança attack 0.92 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
43%
level
31%
Sagrada Esperança scores more
27%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Bravos do Maquis FC 1–0 Sagrada Esperança

Bravos do Maquis FC beat Sagrada Esperança 1-0 in Girabola on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe (Moxico).