Bravos do Maquis FC 2–0 Desportivo Huíla

Bravos do Maquis FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Desportivo Huíla

4/29/2023

Girabola · Round 27Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC48%

×Draw29%

Desportivo Huíla23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bravos do Maquis FCExpected goals in this matchDesportivo Huíla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.76

Bravos do Maquis FC

1.25

Desportivo Huíla

0.76

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 64% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 100 away

1.30

creates per match

0.76

0.75

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC

1.30

Desportivo Huíla

0.76

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.75

Desportivo Huíla

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

Desportivo Huíla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw

77%

Bravos do Maquis FC or Desportivo Huíla

71%

Draw or Desportivo Huíla

52%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+

22%

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals

71%

Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals

36%

Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals

13%

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals

53%

Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals

18%

Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)

68%

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 105 matches

Desportivo Huíla away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.30 + Desportivo Huíla defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Desportivo Huíla attack 0.76 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more

48%

level

29%

Desportivo Huíla scores more

23%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff