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Bravos do Maquis FC vs Académica do Lobito — Girabola 2019

Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
CANC
00:00
Académica do Lobito
Académica do Lobito
4/5/2020GirabolaGirabola · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC51%
×Draw29%
Académica do Lobito21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.31
Académica do Lobito
0.72

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 82% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 100 away

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.30
Académica do Lobito
0.68

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
0.76
Académica do Lobito
1.32

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par
Académica do Lobito+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

Académica do Lobito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw
79%
Bravos do Maquis FC or Académica do Lobito
71%
Draw or Académica do Lobito
49%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
24%
Académica do Lobito wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
73%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
38%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
14%
Académica do Lobito 1+ goals
51%
Académica do Lobito 2+ goals
16%
Académica do Lobito 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
71%
Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.76 · 104 matches

Académica do Lobito away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.30 + Académica do Lobito defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Académica do Lobito attack 0.68 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
51%
level
29%
Académica do Lobito scores more
21%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bravos do Maquis FC face Académica do Lobito (Girabola)

Girabola returns with Bravos do Maquis FC hosting Académica do Lobito. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.