Bravos do Maquis FC 0–1 1º de Agosto

Bravos do Maquis FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

1º de Agosto

10/2/2022

Girabola · Round 2Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC34%

×Draw31%

1º de Agosto36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bravos do Maquis FCExpected goals in this match1º de Agosto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.02

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.98

1º de Agosto

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 107 away

1.30

creates per match

1.29

0.76

allows per match

0.66

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC

1.30

1º de Agosto

1.29

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.76

1º de Agosto

0.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

1º de Agosto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

1º de Agosto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw

64%

Bravos do Maquis FC or 1º de Agosto

69%

Draw or 1º de Agosto

66%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+

12%

1º de Agosto wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals

62%

Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals

26%

Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals

8%

1º de Agosto 1+ goals

64%

1º de Agosto 2+ goals

27%

1º de Agosto 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)

48%

1º de Agosto (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.76 · 104 matches

1º de Agosto away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.66 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.30 + 1º de Agosto defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.98

1º de Agosto attack 1.29 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more

34%

level

31%

1º de Agosto scores more

36%

1º de Agosto at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "1º de Agosto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff