Bravo 0–0 Aluminij: Result & Stats | 1. SNL

Bravo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Aluminij

3/9/2024

1. SNL · Round 25Športni Park Šiška

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Bravo47%

×Draw26%

Aluminij27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BravoExpected goals in this matchAluminij

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.06

Bravo

1.50

Aluminij

1.06

Bravo creates 42% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 90 away

1.26

creates per match

1.07

1.04

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Bravo

1.26

Aluminij

1.07

allows per match

Bravo

1.04

Aluminij

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bravo+0.00on par

Aluminij+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravo ↓

Aluminij →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bravo or draw

73%

Bravo or Aluminij

74%

Draw or Aluminij

53%

Winning margin

Bravo wins by 2+

24%

Aluminij wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bravo 1+ goals

78%

Bravo 2+ goals

44%

Bravo 3+ goals

19%

Aluminij 1+ goals

65%

Aluminij 2+ goals

29%

Aluminij 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bravo (draw refunded)

64%

Aluminij (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravo at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.04 · 125 matches

Aluminij away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.74 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravo attack 1.26 + Aluminij defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Aluminij attack 1.07 + Bravo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bravo scores more

47%

level

26%

Aluminij scores more

27%

Bravo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bravo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff