Brann W 1–1 Vålerenga W: Result & Stats

Brann W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vålerenga W

N. Eide Lie 42'

K. Sævik 50'

10/30/2022

Toppserien · Championship Round - 6Stemmemyren kunstgressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Brann W44%

×Draw23%

Vålerenga W33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brann WExpected goals in this matchVålerenga W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.49

Brann W

1.75

Vålerenga W

1.49

Brann W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 65 away

2.61

creates per match

2.29

0.69

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Brann W

2.61

Vålerenga W

2.29

allows per match

Brann W

0.69

Vålerenga W

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brann W+0.00on par

Vålerenga W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann W ↓

Vålerenga W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Brann W or draw

67%

Brann W or Vålerenga W

77%

Draw or Vålerenga W

56%

Winning margin

Brann W wins by 2+

23%

Vålerenga W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Brann W 1+ goals

83%

Brann W 2+ goals

52%

Brann W 3+ goals

25%

Vålerenga W 1+ goals

77%

Vålerenga W 2+ goals

44%

Vålerenga W 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Brann W (draw refunded)

57%

Vålerenga W (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann W at home — creates 2.61, concedes 0.69 · 59 matches

Vålerenga W away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.89 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann W attack 2.61 + Vålerenga W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.75

Vålerenga W attack 2.29 + Brann W defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Brann W scores more

44%

level

23%

Vålerenga W scores more

33%

Brann W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Brann W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

25'

34'

42'

50'

56'

56'

56'

59'

I. Ryland← M. Brochmann

65'

S. Gaupset← T. Åsland

69'

A. Tomter

69'

A. Tomter

77'

R. Nygård← N. Eide Lie

77'

S. Brekken← O. Tvedten

85'

E. Thorsnes

87'

M. Sesay← E. Thorsnes

Brann

Vålerenga

32

5

11

6

7

22

18

10

▼

Tvedten

15

Tennebø

9

▼

Thorsnes

21

⚽

1

8

5

2

4

19

9

▼

Åsland

11

Naalsund

18

⚽

▼

Lie

36

Guðmundsd

99

▼

Brochmann

Manager: O. Harder

59'▲I. Ryland←▼M. Brochmann

65'▲S. Gaupset←▼T. Åsland

77'▲R. Nygård←▼N. Eide Lie

Brann W substitutes

22Ryland16Gaupset14Nygård12Larsen21Stavenes

Manager: N. Lexerød

77'▲S. Brekken←▼O. Tvedten

87'▲M. Sesay←▼E. Thorsnes

Vålerenga W substitutes

30Brekken14Sesay1Pettersen17Green27Klech29Nyhagen40Sporsem

Toppserien: Brann W 1–1 Vålerenga W

Brann W and Vålerenga W drew 1-1 in Toppserien on October 30, 2022.

Goals: N. Eide Lie (42'), K. Sævik (50').

The match was played at Stemmemyren kunstgressbane in Bergen.

Brann W vs Vålerenga W — Toppserien 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Toppserien: Brann W 1–1 Vålerenga W