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Brann W vs Fortuna Ålesund W — Toppserien 2021

Brann W
Brann W
Preview
13:00
Fortuna Ålesund W
Fortuna Ålesund W
10/4/2026ToppserienToppserien · Round 18Brann Stadion
Big match
48%
Brann W
model favours
48%22%30%

Brann W are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Brann W48%
×Draw22%
Fortuna Ålesund W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brann W
2.00
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.54

Brann W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 5 away

creates per match

Brann W
2.61
Fortuna Ålesund W
2.40

allows per match

Brann W
0.69
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.40

finishing

Brann W+0.00on par
Fortuna Ålesund W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann W ↓

Fortuna Ålesund W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Brann W or draw
70%
Brann W or Fortuna Ålesund W
78%
Draw or Fortuna Ålesund W
52%

Winning margin

Brann W wins by 2+
28%
Fortuna Ålesund W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Brann W 1+ goals
86%
Brann W 2+ goals
59%
Brann W 3+ goals
32%
Fortuna Ålesund W 1+ goals
79%
Fortuna Ålesund W 2+ goals
45%
Fortuna Ålesund W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Brann W (draw refunded)
62%
Fortuna Ålesund W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann W at home — creates 2.61, concedes 0.69 · 59 matches

Fortuna Ålesund W away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann W attack 2.61 + Fortuna Ålesund W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.00

Fortuna Ålesund W attack 2.40 + Brann W defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Brann W scores more
48%
level
22%
Fortuna Ålesund W scores more
30%

Brann W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Brann W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Brann W score first in only 27% of matches
  • 73% of Brann W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 27% of Brann W’s matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Brann W 1 vs Fortuna Ålesund W 2

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DWWWW
W
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Brann W host Fortuna Ålesund W

October 4, 2026: Brann W take on Fortuna Ålesund W in Toppserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Brann W host Fortuna Ålesund W at Brann Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.