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Brann W vs Bodø / Glimt W — Toppserien 2021

Brann W
Brann W
Preview
13:00
Bodø / Glimt W
Bodø / Glimt W
9/19/2026ToppserienToppserien · Round 16Brann Stadion
80%
Brann W
model favours
80%13%7%

Brann W are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Brann W80%
×Draw13%
Bodø / Glimt W7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brann W
2.85
Bodø / Glimt W
0.74

Brann W creates 285% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 20 away

creates per match

Brann W
2.61
Bodø / Glimt W
0.80

allows per match

Brann W
0.69
Bodø / Glimt W
3.10

finishing

Brann W+0.00on par
Bodø / Glimt W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann W ↓

Bodø / Glimt W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Brann W or draw
93%
Brann W or Bodø / Glimt W
87%
Draw or Bodø / Glimt W
20%

Winning margin

Brann W wins by 2+
60%
Bodø / Glimt W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Brann W 1+ goals
94%
Brann W 2+ goals
77%
Brann W 3+ goals
53%
Bodø / Glimt W 1+ goals
52%
Bodø / Glimt W 2+ goals
17%
Bodø / Glimt W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Brann W (draw refunded)
92%
Bodø / Glimt W (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann W at home — creates 2.61, concedes 0.69 · 59 matches

Bodø / Glimt W away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann W attack 2.61 + Bodø / Glimt W defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.85

Bodø / Glimt W attack 0.80 + Brann W defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Brann W scores more
80%
level
13%
Bodø / Glimt W scores more
7%

Brann W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Brann W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Brann W score first in only 27% of matches
  • Bodø / Glimt W score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (73% and 73% over 2.5)
  • Brann W have won 4 of the last 4 meetings
  • 73% of Brann W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 73% of Bodø / Glimt W’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DWWWW
W
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brann W face Bodø / Glimt W (Toppserien)

Toppserien returns with Brann W hosting Bodø / Glimt W. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Brann W host Bodø / Glimt W at Brann Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.