Brann 1–1 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Brann

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Stromsgodset

P. Strand 33'

J. Hove 42'

8/29/2020

Eliteserien · Round 16Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Brann61%

×Draw21%

Stromsgodset18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrannExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.05

Brann

2.09

Stromsgodset

1.05

Brann creates 99% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 35 away

2.10

creates per match

1.06

1.04

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Brann

2.10

Stromsgodset

1.06

allows per match

Brann

1.04

Stromsgodset

2.09

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Brann+0.03on par

Stromsgodset+0.05on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Brann or draw

82%

Brann or Stromsgodset

79%

Draw or Stromsgodset

39%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+

38%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals

88%

Brann 2+ goals

62%

Brann 3+ goals

34%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

65%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

28%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)

77%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.04 · 31 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.09 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.10 + Stromsgodset defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.09

Stromsgodset attack 1.06 + Brann defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Brann scores more

61%

level

21%

Stromsgodset scores more

18%

Brann at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

G. Koomson

Brann · F

8.3

Match Events

33'

42'

53'

73'

74'

H. Stenevik← N. Gunnarsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrannStromsgodset

Overview

50%Possession50%

22Total Shots9

13Corners2

7Fouls11

Shots

22Total Shots9

7On Target5

10Off Target2

5Blocked2

13Inside Box6

9Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

351Total Passes358

252Accurate Passes255

72%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls11

2Offsides2