Brann 3–1 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Brann

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Stromsgodset

G. Sørensen 59'

C. Rismark 56'

F. Haugen 2'

M. Abdellaoue 89'

11/4/2018

Eliteserien · Round 28Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Brann61%

×Draw21%

Stromsgodset19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrannExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.06

Brann

2.09

Stromsgodset

1.06

Brann creates 97% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 36 away

2.10

creates per match

1.06

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Brann

2.10

Stromsgodset

1.06

allows per match

Brann

1.06

Stromsgodset

2.08

+0.02on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Brann+0.02on par

Stromsgodset+0.02on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Brann or draw

81%

Brann or Stromsgodset

79%

Draw or Stromsgodset

39%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+

37%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals

88%

Brann 2+ goals

62%

Brann 3+ goals

34%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

65%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

29%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)

77%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.10 + Stromsgodset defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.09

Stromsgodset attack 1.06 + Brann defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Brann scores more

61%

level

21%

Stromsgodset scores more

19%

Brann at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

F. Haugen

Brann · M

9.1

Match Events

2'

F. Haugen

29'

D. Vega← P. Larsen

56'

C. Rismark↳ F. Haugen

59'

G. Sørensen↳ D. Bamba

63'

B. Acosta← V. Wormgoor

67'

M. Ovenstad← H. Hauger

67'

A. Hoven← A. Pellegrino

74'

Tokmac Chol Nguen

81'

H. Johansen← G. Sørensen

82'

J. Hove← T. Nguen

89'

M. Abdellaoue

90'

Gilbert Koomson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrannStromsgodset

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots10

8Corners4

8Fouls4

Shots

14Total Shots10

6On Target5

5Off Target3

3Blocked2

9Inside Box5

5Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

552Total Passes352

448Accurate Passes235

81%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls4

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

4Offsides0

Eliteserien: Brann 3–1 Stromsgodset

Brann beat Stromsgodset 3-1 in Eliteserien on November 4, 2018.

Goals: F. Haugen (2'), C. Rismark (56'), G. Sørensen (59'), M. Abdellaoue (89').

Brann controlled possession (61%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.

Brann vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Brann 3–1 Stromsgodset