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Brann II vs Gneist — 3. Division - Girone 3 2026

Brann II
Brann II
Preview
11:00
Gneist
Gneist
11/1/20263. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Round 26Varden Amfi
70%
Brann II
model favours
70%15%15%

Brann II and Gneist have never met before

brightest fact of this match

3–1
likely score
85%
over 2.5 goals
75%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Brann II70%
×Draw15%
Gneist15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brann II
3.25
Gneist
1.50

Brann II creates 117% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Brann II
3.33
Gneist
1.67

allows per match

Brann II
1.33
Gneist
3.17

finishing

Brann II+0.00on par
Gneist+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann II ↓

Gneist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Brann II or draw
85%
Brann II or Gneist
85%
Draw or Gneist
30%

Winning margin

Brann II wins by 2+
51%
Gneist wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Brann II 1+ goals
96%
Brann II 2+ goals
83%
Brann II 3+ goals
61%
Gneist 1+ goals
78%
Gneist 2+ goals
44%
Gneist 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Brann II (draw refunded)
82%
Gneist (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann II at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Gneist away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann II attack 3.33 + Gneist defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 3.25

Gneist attack 1.67 + Brann II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Brann II scores more
70%
level
15%
Gneist scores more
15%

Brann II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Brann II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
II
WLDWD
Gneist
LLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brann II vs Gneist — Match Preview

Brann II face Gneist on November 1, 2026 in this 3. Division - Girone 3 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Brann II host Gneist at Varden Amfi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.