Bramberg 4–4 Altenmarkt: Result & Stats

Bramberg

FT

4 – 4

Altenmarkt

9/6/2020

Landesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 4Sportplatz Bramberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Bramberg64%

×Draw18%

Altenmarkt18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrambergExpected goals in this matchAltenmarkt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

1.32

Bramberg

2.60

Altenmarkt

1.32

Bramberg creates 97% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 37 away

2.23

creates per match

1.38

1.27

allows per match

2.97

creates per match

Bramberg

2.23

Altenmarkt

1.38

allows per match

Bramberg

1.27

Altenmarkt

2.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bramberg+0.00on par

Altenmarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bramberg ↓

Altenmarkt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Bramberg or draw

82%

Bramberg or Altenmarkt

82%

Draw or Altenmarkt

36%

Winning margin

Bramberg wins by 2+

43%

Altenmarkt wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bramberg 1+ goals

92%

Bramberg 2+ goals

73%

Bramberg 3+ goals

47%

Altenmarkt 1+ goals

73%

Altenmarkt 2+ goals

38%

Altenmarkt 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bramberg (draw refunded)

78%

Altenmarkt (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bramberg at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.27 · 83 matches

Altenmarkt away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bramberg attack 2.23 + Altenmarkt defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.60

Altenmarkt attack 1.38 + Bramberg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Bramberg scores more

64%

level

18%

Altenmarkt scores more

18%

Bramberg at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Bramberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff