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Bradford vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Bradford
Bradford
Preview
19:45
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
1/19/2027League OneLeague One · Round 26Valley Parade
Big match
48%
Bradford
model favours
48%25%27%

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Bradford48%
×Draw25%
Burton Albion27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bradford
1.60
Burton Albion
1.12

Bradford creates 43% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Bradford
1.57
Burton Albion
1.32

allows per match

Bradford
0.92
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

Bradford-0.32scores less
Burton Albion-0.21scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bradford or draw
73%
Bradford or Burton Albion
75%
Draw or Burton Albion
52%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+
25%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals
80%
Bradford 2+ goals
47%
Bradford 3+ goals
22%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
67%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
31%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)
64%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.57 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

Burton Albion attack 1.32 + Bradford defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bradford scores more
48%
level
25%
Burton Albion scores more
27%

Bradford at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burton Albion win just 24% of their away games
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0
  • Style contrast — Bradford play Defensively solid, Burton Albion Direct / counter-attacking
  • Bradford sit 5, Burton Albion 17 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bradford
Defensively solid
Burton Albion
Direct / counter-attacking
50%Possession43%
66%Pass accuracy64%
12.4ShotsBiggest gap9.9
1.32xG1.31
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BradfordBurton Albion

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Bradford
1
Draws
5
Burton Albion
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 60%
1–21–20–41–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bradford
LWWLL
Albion
LLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bradford vs Burton Albion — Match Preview

Bradford face Burton Albion on January 19, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bradford host Burton Albion at Valley Parade.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.