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Brabrand vs Roskilde — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Brabrand
Brabrand
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Roskilde
Roskilde
K. Nygaard Andersen 46'
10/22/20222nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 12Brabrand IF's Idrætsanlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Brabrand36%
×Draw26%
Roskilde38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brabrand
1.30
Roskilde
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 46 away

creates per match

Brabrand
1.27
Roskilde
1.43

allows per match

Brabrand
1.27
Roskilde
1.33

finishing

Brabrand+0.00on par
Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brabrand ↓

Roskilde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Brabrand or draw
62%
Brabrand or Roskilde
74%
Draw or Roskilde
64%

Winning margin

Brabrand wins by 2+
16%
Roskilde wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Brabrand 1+ goals
73%
Brabrand 2+ goals
37%
Brabrand 3+ goals
14%
Roskilde 1+ goals
74%
Roskilde 2+ goals
39%
Roskilde 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Brabrand (draw refunded)
48%
Roskilde (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brabrand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Roskilde away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brabrand attack 1.27 + Roskilde defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Roskilde attack 1.43 + Brabrand defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Brabrand scores more
36%
level
26%
Roskilde scores more
38%

Roskilde at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
K. Nygaard Andersen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brabrand vs Roskilde

Brabrand beat Roskilde 1-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 22, 2022.

Goals: K. Nygaard Andersen (46').

The match was played at Brabrand IF's Idrætsanlæg in Brabrand.