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Brabrand vs Nykobing FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Brabrand
Brabrand
Preview
12:00
Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
9/26/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 9
Big match
49%
Brabrand
model favours
49%24%27%

Nykobing FC are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Brabrand49%
×Draw24%
Nykobing FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brabrand
1.72
Nykobing FC
1.20

Brabrand creates 43% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 32 away

creates per match

Brabrand
1.28
Nykobing FC
1.13

allows per match

Brabrand
1.27
Nykobing FC
2.16

finishing

Brabrand+0.00on par
Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brabrand ↓

Nykobing FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Brabrand or draw
73%
Brabrand or Nykobing FC
76%
Draw or Nykobing FC
51%

Winning margin

Brabrand wins by 2+
27%
Nykobing FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Brabrand 1+ goals
82%
Brabrand 2+ goals
51%
Brabrand 3+ goals
25%
Nykobing FC 1+ goals
70%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
34%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brabrand (draw refunded)
65%
Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brabrand at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.27 · 79 matches

Nykobing FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brabrand attack 1.28 + Nykobing FC defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.72

Nykobing FC attack 1.13 + Brabrand defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brabrand scores more
49%
level
24%
Nykobing FC scores more
27%

Brabrand at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brabrand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Nykobing FC have won 6 in a row
  • 73% of Nykobing FC’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Brabrand
LLLDW
FC
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Brabrand host Nykobing FC

September 26, 2026: Brabrand take on Nykobing FC in 2nd Division - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.