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Brøndby W vs VSK Aarhus W — Kvindeliga 2019

Brøndby W
Brøndby W
PST
12:00
VSK Aarhus W
VSK Aarhus W
6/20/2020KvindeligaKvindeliga · Championship Round - 4Brøndby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Brøndby W49%
×Draw23%
VSK Aarhus W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brøndby W
1.84
VSK Aarhus W
1.36

Brøndby W creates 35% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 9 away

creates per match

Brøndby W
2.02
VSK Aarhus W
1.78

allows per match

Brøndby W
0.94
VSK Aarhus W
1.67

finishing

Brøndby W+0.00on par
VSK Aarhus W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brøndby W ↓

VSK Aarhus W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Brøndby W or draw
71%
Brøndby W or VSK Aarhus W
77%
Draw or VSK Aarhus W
51%

Winning margin

Brøndby W wins by 2+
27%
VSK Aarhus W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Brøndby W 1+ goals
84%
Brøndby W 2+ goals
55%
Brøndby W 3+ goals
28%
VSK Aarhus W 1+ goals
74%
VSK Aarhus W 2+ goals
39%
VSK Aarhus W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Brøndby W (draw refunded)
63%
VSK Aarhus W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brøndby W at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.94 · 81 matches

VSK Aarhus W away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brøndby W attack 2.02 + VSK Aarhus W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.84

VSK Aarhus W attack 1.78 + Brøndby W defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brøndby W scores more
49%
level
23%
VSK Aarhus W scores more
29%

Brøndby W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brøndby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Brøndby W host VSK Aarhus W

June 20, 2020: Brøndby W take on VSK Aarhus W in Kvindeliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Brøndby W host VSK Aarhus W at Brøndby Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.