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Brøndby W vs Nordsjælland W — Kvindeliga 2019

Brøndby W
Brøndby W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nordsjælland W
Nordsjælland W
6/17/2020KvindeligaKvindeliga · Championship Round - 3Brøndby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Brøndby W49%
×Draw25%
Nordsjælland W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brøndby W
1.63
Nordsjælland W
1.13

Brøndby W creates 44% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 81 away

creates per match

Brøndby W
2.02
Nordsjælland W
1.31

allows per match

Brøndby W
0.94
Nordsjælland W
1.23

finishing

Brøndby W+0.00on par
Nordsjælland W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brøndby W ↓

Nordsjælland W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Brøndby W or draw
74%
Brøndby W or Nordsjælland W
75%
Draw or Nordsjælland W
51%

Winning margin

Brøndby W wins by 2+
26%
Nordsjælland W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Brøndby W 1+ goals
80%
Brøndby W 2+ goals
48%
Brøndby W 3+ goals
22%
Nordsjælland W 1+ goals
68%
Nordsjælland W 2+ goals
31%
Nordsjælland W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Brøndby W (draw refunded)
65%
Nordsjælland W (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brøndby W at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.94 · 81 matches

Nordsjælland W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brøndby W attack 2.02 + Nordsjælland W defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.63

Nordsjælland W attack 1.31 + Brøndby W defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brøndby W scores more
49%
level
25%
Nordsjælland W scores more
26%

Brøndby W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brøndby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kvindeliga: Brøndby W 1–0 Nordsjælland W

Brøndby W beat Nordsjælland W 1-0 in Kvindeliga on June 17, 2020.

The match was played at Brøndby Stadion in Brøndby.