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Bövinghausen vs Ennepetal — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ennepetal
Ennepetal
8/27/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 3Sportplatz Bövinghausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Bövinghausen36%
×Draw21%
Ennepetal43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bövinghausen
1.90
Ennepetal
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 88 away

creates per match

Bövinghausen
1.66
Ennepetal
1.33

allows per match

Bövinghausen
2.83
Ennepetal
2.14

finishing

Bövinghausen+0.00on par
Ennepetal+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bövinghausen ↓

Ennepetal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Bövinghausen or draw
57%
Bövinghausen or Ennepetal
79%
Draw or Ennepetal
64%

Winning margin

Bövinghausen wins by 2+
19%
Ennepetal wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Bövinghausen 1+ goals
85%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
56%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
29%
Ennepetal 1+ goals
87%
Ennepetal 2+ goals
61%
Ennepetal 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
46%
Ennepetal (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bövinghausen at home — creates 1.66, concedes 2.83 · 47 matches

Ennepetal away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.14 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bövinghausen attack 1.66 + Ennepetal defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.90

Ennepetal attack 1.33 + Bövinghausen defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bövinghausen scores more
36%
level
21%
Ennepetal scores more
43%

Ennepetal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ennepetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Bövinghausen 3–1 Ennepetal

Bövinghausen beat Ennepetal 3-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bövinghausen in Dortmund.