Bournemouth 1–1 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nottingham Forest

J. Anthony 28'

S. Surridge 83'

1/21/2023

Premier League · Round 21Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Bournemouth53%

×Draw24%

Nottingham Forest24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.06

Bournemouth

1.71

Nottingham Forest

1.06

Bournemouth creates 61% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 40 away

1.65

creates per match

1.02

1.11

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.65

Nottingham Forest

1.02

allows per match

Bournemouth

1.11

Nottingham Forest

1.77

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Bournemouth-0.27scores less

Nottingham Forest+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

76%

Bournemouth or Nottingham Forest

76%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

47%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

29%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

82%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

51%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

24%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

65%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

29%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

69%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.11 · 26 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.77 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.65 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.71

Nottingham Forest attack 1.02 + Bournemouth defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bournemouth scores more

53%

level

24%

Nottingham Forest scores more

24%

Bournemouth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

J. Worrall

Nottingham Forest · D

8.0

Match Events

14'

Ryan YatesGoal cancelled

28'

J. Anthony↳ D. Ouattara

32'

Lloyd Kelly

36'

Joe Worrall

45'

Danilo← R. Yates

60'

Gustavo Scarpa← O. Mangala

75'

B. Pearson← J. Rothwell

75'

S. Surridge← C. Wood

75'

S. McKenna← W. Boly

75'

N. Williams← S. Aurier

83'

S. Surridge↳ B. Johnson

84'

Sam SurridgeGoal confirmed

86'

Gustavo Scarpa

88'

S. Dembélé← R. Christie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthNottingham

Overview

42%Possession58%

16Total Shots20

1.42Expected Goals (xG)1.93

4Corners6

10Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots20

4On Target5

8Off Target11

4Blocked4

12Inside Box11

4Outside Box9

Passing

42%Possession58%

366Total Passes485

265Accurate Passes388

72%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2