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Bournemouth vs Manchester City — Premier League 2026

Bournemouth
Bournemouth
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Manchester City
Manchester City
J. Lerma 83'
C. Mepham 51' (OG)
P. Foden 45'
E. Haaland 29'
J. Álvarez 15'
2/25/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Bournemouth38%
×Draw25%
Manchester City37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bournemouth
1.44
Manchester City
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 34 away

creates per match

Bournemouth
1.66
Manchester City
1.79

allows per match

Bournemouth
1.07
Manchester City
1.21

finishing

Bournemouth-0.26scores less
Manchester City-0.23scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Manchester City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw
63%
Bournemouth or Manchester City
75%
Draw or Manchester City
62%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+
18%
Manchester City wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals
76%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
42%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
18%
Manchester City 1+ goals
76%
Manchester City 2+ goals
42%
Manchester City 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)
50%
Manchester City (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.07 · 25 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.66 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Manchester City attack 1.79 + Bournemouth defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bournemouth scores more
38%
level
25%
Manchester City scores more
37%

Bournemouth at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47
P. FodenManchester CityManchester City · F
8.9

Match Events

15'
J. Álvarez
29'
E. Haaland↳ P. Foden
45'
P. Foden
47'
Dango Ouattara
51'
C. MephamOwn goal
55'
Sergio Gómez← İ. Gündoğan
55'
K. Phillips← Rodri
58'
Chris Mepham
59'
R. Fredericks← A. Smith
59'
J. Rothwell← P. Billing
60'
Kalvin Phillips
63'
Manuel Akanji
66'
Dominic SolankePenalty cancelled
72'
R. Mahrez← J. Grealish
72'
M. Perrone← E. Haaland
76'
J. Anthony← H. Traorè
80'
K. Walker← N. Aké
83'
J. Lerma

Possession

34%Bournemouth

Shots

13Bournemouth

Pass accuracy

48%Bournemouth

Statistics

BournemouthManchester
Overview
34%Possession66%
13Total Shots20
1.32Expected Goals (xG)2.52
4Corners6
10Fouls9
Shots
13Total Shots20
2On Target5
5Off Target8
6Blocked7
11Inside Box14
2Outside Box6
Passing
34%Possession66%
377Total Passes750
313Accurate Passes676
83%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls9
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Bournemouth vs Manchester City

Manchester City beat Bournemouth 4-1 in Premier League on February 25, 2023.

Goals: J. Álvarez (15'), E. Haaland (29'), P. Foden (45'), C. Mepham (51' o.g.), J. Lerma (83').

Manchester City controlled possession (66%) and registered 20 shots to 13.

The match was played at Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth, Dorset.