Bournemouth 0–4 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Manchester City

A. Kolarov 90+3'

S. Agüero 19'

K. De Bruyne 12'

Fernando 7'

4/2/2016

Premier League · Round 32Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Bournemouth37%

×Draw25%

Manchester City39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.48

Bournemouth

1.43

Manchester City

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 36 away

1.65

creates per match

1.84

1.11

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.65

Manchester City

1.84

allows per match

Bournemouth

1.11

Manchester City

1.21

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Bournemouth-0.27scores less

Manchester City-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

61%

Bournemouth or Manchester City

75%

Draw or Manchester City

63%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

17%

Manchester City wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

76%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

42%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

17%

Manchester City 1+ goals

77%

Manchester City 2+ goals

43%

Manchester City 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

49%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.11 · 26 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.21 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.65 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.43

Manchester City attack 1.84 + Bournemouth defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bournemouth scores more

37%

level

25%

Manchester City scores more

39%

Manchester City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Agüero

Manchester City · F

8.1

Match Events

7'

Fernando

12'

K. De Bruyne↳ David Silva

19'

S. Agüero↳ Jesús Navas

46'

M. Pugh← J. King

57'

A. Kolarov← K. De Bruyne

66'

S. Nasri← David Silva

68'

T. Elphick← A. Smith

79'

K. Iheanacho← S. Agüero

84'

D. Gosling← M. Gradel

89'

Fernando

90+3'

A. Kolarov↳ S. Nasri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthManchester

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots15

4Corners4

0Fouls0

Shots

11Total Shots15

2On Target7

5Off Target8

4Blocked0

6Inside Box10

5Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

459Total Passes557

384Accurate Passes470

84%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

0Fouls0

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4