Bournemouth 0–2 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Crystal Palace

E. Eze 36'

J. Ayew 19'

12/31/2022

Premier League · Round 18Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Bournemouth46%

×Draw26%

Crystal Palace28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.10

Bournemouth

1.47

Crystal Palace

1.10

Bournemouth creates 34% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 33 away

1.68

creates per match

1.19

1.01

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.68

Crystal Palace

1.19

allows per match

Bournemouth

1.01

Crystal Palace

1.26

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Bournemouth-0.26scores less

Crystal Palace-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

72%

Bournemouth or Crystal Palace

74%

Draw or Crystal Palace

54%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

22%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

77%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

43%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

18%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

67%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

30%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

62%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.01 · 24 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.68 + Crystal Palace defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.47

Crystal Palace attack 1.19 + Bournemouth defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bournemouth scores more

46%

level

26%

Crystal Palace scores more

28%

Bournemouth at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Olise

Crystal Palace · M

8.2

Match Events

19'

J. Ayew↳ M. Olise

25'

Lloyd Kelly

26'

Jaidon Anthony

36'

E. Eze↳ M. Olise

38'

S. Dembélé← P. Billing

67'

Dominic Solanke

70'

J. Rothwell← J. Zemura

74'

J. Mateta← J. Ayew

74'

O. Édouard← E. Eze

80'

R. Christie← J. Anthony

80'

J. Lowe← L. Cook

87'

Joachim Andersen

88'

W. Hughes← M. Olise

90'

Marcos Senesi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthCrystal

Overview

59%Possession41%

6Total Shots15

2Corners7

17Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots15

2On Target6

3Off Target4

1Blocked5

4Inside Box6

2Outside Box9

Passing

59%Possession41%

455Total Passes317

342Accurate Passes218

75%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls11

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1