Bournemouth 0–2 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Crystal Palace

J. Ayew 23'

L. Milivojević 12'

6/20/2020

Premier League · Round 30Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Bournemouth45%

×Draw26%

Crystal Palace29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.13

Bournemouth

1.47

Crystal Palace

1.13

Bournemouth creates 30% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 34 away

1.66

creates per match

1.19

1.07

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.66

Crystal Palace

1.19

allows per match

Bournemouth

1.07

Crystal Palace

1.28

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Bournemouth-0.26scores less

Crystal Palace-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

71%

Bournemouth or Crystal Palace

74%

Draw or Crystal Palace

55%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

22%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

77%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

43%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

18%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

68%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

31%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

61%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.07 · 25 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.28 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.66 + Crystal Palace defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.47

Crystal Palace attack 1.19 + Bournemouth defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bournemouth scores more

45%

level

26%

Crystal Palace scores more

29%

Bournemouth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

L. Milivojević

Crystal Palace · M

7.4

Match Events

12'

L. Milivojević

23'

J. Ayew↳ P. van Aanholt

45'

Adam Smith

45'

Jordan Ayew

46'

A. Groeneveld← H. Wilson

49'

D. Solanke← J. King

61'

J. Stanislas← D. Brooks

65'

J. McCarthy← L. Milivojević

67'

Lewis Cook

71'

Joel Ward

76'

A. Townsend← C. Benteke

86'

Steve Cook

89'

J. Riedewald← J. McArthur

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthCrystal

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots7

11Corners4

13Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots7

1On Target2

7Off Target4

4Blocked1

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

494Total Passes350

412Accurate Passes268

83%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3