Bournemouth 0–2 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Crystal Palace

C. Benteke 90+2'

S. Dann 46'

1/31/2017

Premier League · Round 23Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Bournemouth44%

×Draw26%

Crystal Palace30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.16

Bournemouth

1.46

Crystal Palace

1.16

Bournemouth creates 26% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 35 away

1.65

creates per match

1.21

1.11

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.65

Crystal Palace

1.21

allows per match

Bournemouth

1.11

Crystal Palace

1.26

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Bournemouth-0.27scores less

Crystal Palace-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

70%

Bournemouth or Crystal Palace

74%

Draw or Crystal Palace

56%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

21%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

77%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

43%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

18%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

69%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

32%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

59%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.11 · 26 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.65 + Crystal Palace defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Crystal Palace attack 1.21 + Bournemouth defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bournemouth scores more

44%

level

26%

Crystal Palace scores more

30%

Bournemouth at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

S. Dann

Crystal Palace · D

7.8

Match Events

46'

53'

61'

61'

68'

76'

A. Townsend← J. McArthur

76'

85'

90'

90'

90+3'

M. Flamini← J. Puncheon

90+2'

C. Benteke↳ A. Townsend

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthCrystal

Overview

65%Possession35%

10Total Shots11

2Corners3

14Fouls23

Shots

10Total Shots11

2On Target4

5Off Target6

3Blocked1

2Inside Box6

8Outside Box5

Passing

65%Possession35%

453Total Passes233

377Accurate Passes154

83%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls23

0Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0