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Bougouni vs Binga — Première Division 2019

Bougouni
Bougouni
FT
1 – 1
Binga
Binga
11/6/2023Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 2Complexe Sportif Karounga Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Bougouni33%
×Draw31%
Binga36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bougouni
0.95
Binga
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 56 away

creates per match

Bougouni
1.01
Binga
1.02

allows per match

Bougouni
1.01
Binga
0.88

finishing

Bougouni+0.00on par
Binga+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bougouni ↓

Binga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bougouni or draw
64%
Bougouni or Binga
69%
Draw or Binga
67%

Winning margin

Bougouni wins by 2+
12%
Binga wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bougouni 1+ goals
61%
Bougouni 2+ goals
25%
Bougouni 3+ goals
7%
Binga 1+ goals
64%
Binga 2+ goals
27%
Binga 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bougouni (draw refunded)
47%
Binga (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bougouni at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

Binga away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.88 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bougouni attack 1.01 + Binga defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.95

Binga attack 1.02 + Bougouni defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bougouni scores more
33%
level
31%
Binga scores more
36%

Binga at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Binga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Bougouni 1–1 Binga

Bougouni and Binga drew 1-1 in Première Division on November 6, 2023.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Karounga Keïta in Bamako.