Bougouni vs Avenir de Tombouctou

Bougouni

PST

00:00

Avenir de Tombouctou

9/16/2020

Première Division · Relegation Round - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bougouni60%

×Draw23%

Avenir de Tombouctou16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BougouniExpected goals in this matchAvenir de Tombouctou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.77

Bougouni

1.73

Avenir de Tombouctou

0.77

Bougouni creates 125% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 11 away

1.01

creates per match

0.55

0.99

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Bougouni

1.01

Avenir de Tombouctou

0.55

allows per match

Bougouni

0.99

Avenir de Tombouctou

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bougouni+0.00on par

Avenir de Tombouctou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bougouni ↓

Avenir de Tombouctou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bougouni or draw

84%

Bougouni or Avenir de Tombouctou

77%

Draw or Avenir de Tombouctou

40%

Winning margin

Bougouni wins by 2+

34%

Avenir de Tombouctou wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bougouni 1+ goals

82%

Bougouni 2+ goals

52%

Bougouni 3+ goals

25%

Avenir de Tombouctou 1+ goals

54%

Avenir de Tombouctou 2+ goals

18%

Avenir de Tombouctou 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bougouni (draw refunded)

79%

Avenir de Tombouctou (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bougouni at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.99 · 80 matches

Avenir de Tombouctou away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bougouni attack 1.01 + Avenir de Tombouctou defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

Avenir de Tombouctou attack 0.55 + Bougouni defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bougouni scores more

60%

level

23%

Avenir de Tombouctou scores more

16%

Bougouni at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bougouni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff