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Bouenguidi vs Bitam — Championnat D1 2022

Bouenguidi
Bouenguidi
FT
1 – 0
Bitam
Bitam
3/12/2023Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 12Stade Augustin Monédan de Sibang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bouenguidi36%
×Draw29%
Bitam34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bouenguidi
1.10
Bitam
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

creates per match

Bouenguidi
0.73
Bitam
1.16

allows per match

Bouenguidi
0.97
Bitam
1.48

finishing

Bouenguidi+0.00on par
Bitam+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouenguidi ↓

Bitam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bouenguidi or draw
66%
Bouenguidi or Bitam
71%
Draw or Bitam
64%

Winning margin

Bouenguidi wins by 2+
15%
Bitam wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bouenguidi 1+ goals
67%
Bouenguidi 2+ goals
30%
Bouenguidi 3+ goals
10%
Bitam 1+ goals
65%
Bitam 2+ goals
29%
Bitam 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bouenguidi (draw refunded)
51%
Bitam (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouenguidi at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Bitam away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouenguidi attack 0.73 + Bitam defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.10

Bitam attack 1.16 + Bouenguidi defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bouenguidi scores more
36%
level
29%
Bitam scores more
34%

Bouenguidi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Bouenguidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bouenguidi vs Bitam

Bouenguidi beat Bitam 1-0 in Championnat D1 on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Augustin Monédan de Sibang in Libreville.