Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Botev Vratsa vs Levski Sofia — First League 2026

Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
12/9/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Botev Vratsa29%
×Draw28%
Levski Sofia43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa
0.99
Levski Sofia
1.27

Levski Sofia creates 28% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 138 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa
1.04
Levski Sofia
1.41

allows per match

Botev Vratsa
1.12
Levski Sofia
0.93

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par
Levski Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Levski Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw
57%
Botev Vratsa or Levski Sofia
72%
Draw or Levski Sofia
71%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
11%
Levski Sofia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
63%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
26%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
8%
Levski Sofia 1+ goals
72%
Levski Sofia 2+ goals
36%
Levski Sofia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
40%
Levski Sofia (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.12 · 139 matches

Levski Sofia away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.93 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.04 + Levski Sofia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

Levski Sofia attack 1.41 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more
29%
level
28%
Levski Sofia scores more
43%

Levski Sofia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Vratsa vs Levski Sofia

Levski Sofia beat Botev Vratsa 1-0 in First League on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Vratsa.