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Botev Vratsa vs Beroe — First League 2018

Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Beroe
Beroe
5/25/2024First LeagueFirst League · Relegation Round - 5Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Botev Vratsa41%
×Draw28%
Beroe30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa
1.25
Beroe
1.03

Botev Vratsa creates 21% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 138 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa
1.04
Beroe
0.93

allows per match

Botev Vratsa
1.12
Beroe
1.46

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par
Beroe+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Beroe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw
70%
Botev Vratsa or Beroe
72%
Draw or Beroe
59%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
18%
Beroe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
71%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
36%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
13%
Beroe 1+ goals
64%
Beroe 2+ goals
28%
Beroe 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
58%
Beroe (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.12 · 139 matches

Beroe away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.46 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.04 + Beroe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Beroe attack 0.93 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more
41%
level
28%
Beroe scores more
30%

Botev Vratsa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Botev Vratsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Botev Vratsa 1–0 Beroe

Botev Vratsa beat Beroe 1-0 in First League on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Vratsa.