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Botev Vratsa II vs OFK Levski — Third League - Northwest 2018

Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
FT
2 – 0
OFK Levski
OFK Levski
4/7/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 25Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Botev Vratsa II54%
×Draw22%
OFK Levski24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa II
1.96
OFK Levski
1.24

Botev Vratsa II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 100 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.61
OFK Levski
0.90

allows per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.58
OFK Levski
2.30

finishing

Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par
OFK Levski+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa II ↓

OFK Levski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa II or draw
76%
Botev Vratsa II or OFK Levski
78%
Draw or OFK Levski
46%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
31%
OFK Levski wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
86%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
58%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
31%
OFK Levski 1+ goals
71%
OFK Levski 2+ goals
35%
OFK Levski 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
69%
OFK Levski (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa II at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 62 matches

OFK Levski away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.30 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.61 + OFK Levski defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.96

OFK Levski attack 0.90 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Botev Vratsa II scores more
54%
level
22%
OFK Levski scores more
24%

Botev Vratsa II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Botev Vratsa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Vratsa II vs OFK Levski

Botev Vratsa II beat OFK Levski 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Lukovit.