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Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna — First League 2018

Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
Preview
18:15
Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
8/1/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Stadion Hristo Botev
Big match
40%
Botev Plovdiv
model favours
40%28%32%

Cherno More Varna are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Botev Plovdiv40%
×Draw28%
Cherno More Varna32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv
1.23
Cherno More Varna
1.07

Botev Plovdiv creates 15% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 136 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv
1.36
Cherno More Varna
1.06

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv
1.08
Cherno More Varna
1.10

finishing

Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par
Cherno More Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv ↓

Cherno More Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv or draw
68%
Botev Plovdiv or Cherno More Varna
72%
Draw or Cherno More Varna
60%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+
17%
Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals
71%
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
35%
Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals
13%
Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
66%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
29%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)
55%
Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 139 matches

Cherno More Varna away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.10 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.36 + Cherno More Varna defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cherno More Varna attack 1.06 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Botev Plovdiv scores more
40%
level
28%
Cherno More Varna scores more
32%

Botev Plovdiv at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 75% of Botev Plovdiv’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Botev Plovdiv have scored in 8 games running
  • Botev Plovdiv outscore their xG (1.8 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Plovdiv
WWLWW
Varna
DDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Botev Plovdiv host Cherno More Varna

August 1, 2026: Botev Plovdiv take on Cherno More Varna in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Botev Plovdiv host Cherno More Varna at Stadion Hristo Botev.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.