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Botev Ihtiman vs Chavdar Etropole — Third League - Southwest 2018

Botev Ihtiman
Botev Ihtiman
FT
1 – 3
Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
9/22/2018Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 8Gradski stadion (Ihtiman)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Botev Ihtiman39%
×Draw25%
Chavdar Etropole36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Ihtiman
1.48
Chavdar Etropole
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 87 away

creates per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.63
Chavdar Etropole
1.55

allows per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.29
Chavdar Etropole
1.34

finishing

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par
Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Ihtiman ↓

Chavdar Etropole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Botev Ihtiman or draw
64%
Botev Ihtiman or Chavdar Etropole
75%
Draw or Chavdar Etropole
61%

Winning margin

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+
19%
Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals
77%
Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals
43%
Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals
19%
Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
76%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
41%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)
52%
Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Ihtiman at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.29 · 131 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Ihtiman attack 1.63 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Botev Ihtiman scores more
39%
level
25%
Chavdar Etropole scores more
36%

Botev Ihtiman at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Botev Ihtiman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Ihtiman vs Chavdar Etropole

Chavdar Etropole beat Botev Ihtiman 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Ihtiman).