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Botafogo vs RB Bragantino — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Botafogo
Botafogo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
RB Bragantino
RB Bragantino
3/7/2024CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · 3rd RoundEstádio Nilton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Botafogo68%
×Draw20%
RB Bragantino12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo
1.97
RB Bragantino
0.66

Botafogo creates 198% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

creates per match

Botafogo
2.14
RB Bragantino
0.60

allows per match

Botafogo
0.71
RB Bragantino
1.80

finishing

Botafogo+0.00on par
RB Bragantino+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo ↓

RB Bragantino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Botafogo or draw
88%
Botafogo or RB Bragantino
80%
Draw or RB Bragantino
32%

Winning margin

Botafogo wins by 2+
42%
RB Bragantino wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Botafogo 1+ goals
86%
Botafogo 2+ goals
58%
Botafogo 3+ goals
31%
RB Bragantino 1+ goals
48%
RB Bragantino 2+ goals
14%
RB Bragantino 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Botafogo (draw refunded)
85%
RB Bragantino (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

RB Bragantino away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo attack 2.14 + RB Bragantino defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.97

RB Bragantino attack 0.60 + Botafogo defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Botafogo scores more
68%
level
20%
RB Bragantino scores more
12%

Botafogo at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Botafogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Botafogo 2–1 RB Bragantino

Botafogo beat RB Bragantino 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro.