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Botafogo SP U20 vs Santo André U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Botafogo SP U20
Botafogo SP U20
Preview
18:00
Santo André U20
Santo André U20
8/7/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 10
55%
Botafogo SP U20
model favours
55%22%23%

Santo André U20 score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Botafogo SP U2055%
×Draw22%
Santo André U2023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo SP U20
1.99
Santo André U20
1.21

Botafogo SP U20 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

creates per match

Botafogo SP U20
2.48
Santo André U20
1.50

allows per match

Botafogo SP U20
0.92
Santo André U20
1.50

finishing

Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par
Santo André U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP U20 ↓

Santo André U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Botafogo SP U20 or draw
77%
Botafogo SP U20 or Santo André U20
78%
Draw or Santo André U20
45%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+
32%
Santo André U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals
86%
Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals
59%
Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals
32%
Santo André U20 1+ goals
70%
Santo André U20 2+ goals
34%
Santo André U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)
71%
Santo André U20 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP U20 at home — creates 2.48, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Santo André U20 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP U20 attack 2.48 + Santo André U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.99

Santo André U20 attack 1.50 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Botafogo SP U20 scores more
55%
level
22%
Santo André U20 scores more
23%

Botafogo SP U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Botafogo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Botafogo SP U20 sit 37, Santo André U20 12 in the table
  • 33% of Botafogo SP U20’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LDDDD
U20
WWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Botafogo SP U20 host Santo André U20

August 7, 2026: Botafogo SP U20 take on Santo André U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.