Botafogo SP U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20

Botafogo SP U20

Preview

18:00

EC São Bernardo U20

9/12/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 15

57%

Botafogo SP U20

model favours

57%22%20%

70% of EC São Bernardo U20’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

56%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Botafogo SP U2057%

×Draw22%

EC São Bernardo U2020%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo SP U20Expected goals in this matchEC São Bernardo U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.03

Botafogo SP U20

1.89

EC São Bernardo U20

1.03

Botafogo SP U20 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

2.48

creates per match

1.15

0.92

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Botafogo SP U20

2.48

EC São Bernardo U20

1.15

allows per match

Botafogo SP U20

0.92

EC São Bernardo U20

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par

EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP U20 ↓

EC São Bernardo U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Botafogo SP U20 or draw

80%

Botafogo SP U20 or EC São Bernardo U20

78%

Draw or EC São Bernardo U20

43%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+

33%

EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals

85%

Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals

56%

Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals

29%

EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals

64%

EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals

28%

EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)

74%

EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP U20 at home — creates 2.48, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

EC São Bernardo U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP U20 attack 2.48 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.89

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.15 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Botafogo SP U20 scores more

57%

level

22%

EC São Bernardo U20 scores more

20%

Botafogo SP U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Botafogo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

33% of Botafogo SP U20’s goals come after the 75th minute
Botafogo SP U20 and EC São Bernardo U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

LDDDD

U20

DLLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff