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Botafogo SP U20 vs Desportivo Brasil U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Botafogo SP U20
Botafogo SP U20
Preview
18:00
Desportivo Brasil U20
Desportivo Brasil U20
7/26/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 8
57%
Botafogo SP U20
model favours
57%21%22%

Desportivo Brasil U20 score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Botafogo SP U2057%
×Draw21%
Desportivo Brasil U2022%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo SP U20
2.04
Desportivo Brasil U20
1.18

Botafogo SP U20 creates 73% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

creates per match

Botafogo SP U20
2.48
Desportivo Brasil U20
1.43

allows per match

Botafogo SP U20
0.92
Desportivo Brasil U20
1.61

finishing

Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par
Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP U20 ↓

Desportivo Brasil U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Botafogo SP U20 or draw
78%
Botafogo SP U20 or Desportivo Brasil U20
79%
Draw or Desportivo Brasil U20
43%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+
34%
Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals
87%
Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals
60%
Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals
33%
Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals
69%
Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals
33%
Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)
72%
Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP U20 at home — creates 2.48, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Desportivo Brasil U20 away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP U20 attack 2.48 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.04

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.43 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Botafogo SP U20 scores more
57%
level
21%
Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more
22%

Botafogo SP U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Botafogo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 18% of Desportivo Brasil U20’s matches
  • 73% of Desportivo Brasil U20’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Botafogo SP U20 sit 37, Desportivo Brasil U20 14 in the table
  • 33% of Botafogo SP U20’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LDDDD
U20
WLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Botafogo SP U20 host Desportivo Brasil U20

July 26, 2026: Botafogo SP U20 take on Desportivo Brasil U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.