Botafogo PB 2–0 ABC: Result & Stats | Serie C

Botafogo PB

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ABC

Junior Lopes 76'

Marcos Aurélio 50' (pen)

7/8/2018

Serie C · Round 13Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho (João Pessoa, Paraíba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Botafogo PB48%

×Draw29%

ABC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo PBExpected goals in this matchABC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.81

Botafogo PB

1.31

ABC

0.81

Botafogo PB creates 62% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 53 away

1.48

creates per match

0.77

0.86

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Botafogo PB

1.48

ABC

0.77

allows per match

Botafogo PB

0.86

ABC

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botafogo PB+0.00on par

ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo PB ↓

ABC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Botafogo PB or draw

77%

Botafogo PB or ABC

71%

Draw or ABC

52%

Winning margin

Botafogo PB wins by 2+

23%

ABC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Botafogo PB 1+ goals

73%

Botafogo PB 2+ goals

38%

Botafogo PB 3+ goals

14%

ABC 1+ goals

56%

ABC 2+ goals

19%

ABC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)

68%

ABC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo PB at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.86 · 92 matches

ABC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo PB attack 1.48 + ABC defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

ABC attack 0.77 + Botafogo PB defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Botafogo PB scores more

48%

level

29%

ABC scores more

23%

Botafogo PB at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Botafogo PB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

Marcos AurélioPenalty

53'

Luan← Erivélton

66'

Mario Sergio← Leandro Kivel

66'

Lauder← Matheus Carvalho

73'

Carlos Renato← Juninho Silva

76'

Junior Lopes

78'

Allan Dias← Marcos Aurélio

78'

Henrique← Vinícius

Botafogo

ABC

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Evaristo Piza

66'▲Mario Sergio←▼Leandro Kivel

73'▲Carlos Renato←▼Juninho Silva

78'▲Allan Dias←▼Marcos Aurélio

Botafogo PB substitutes

SergioRenatoDiasAlexAlvesHumbertoJobinhoLulaNandoCostaCesarWálber

Manager: Ranielle Ribeiro

53'▲Luan←▼Erivélton

66'▲Lauder←▼Matheus Carvalho

78'▲Henrique←▼Vinícius

ABC substitutes

LuanLauderHenriqueGomesCardosoCearenseLeomirJúniorSamuel

Serie C: Botafogo PB 2–0 ABC

Botafogo PB beat ABC 2-0 in Serie C on July 8, 2018.

Goals: Marcos Aurélio (50' pen), Junior Lopes (76').

The match was played at Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho (João Pessoa, Paraíba).

Botafogo PB vs ABC — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Botafogo PB 2–0 ABC