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Boston River vs Racing Montevideo — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Boston River
Boston River
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Racing Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
3/22/2025Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 7Parque Artigas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Boston River38%
×Draw27%
Racing Montevideo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boston River
1.28
Racing Montevideo
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 56 away

creates per match

Boston River
1.18
Racing Montevideo
1.18

allows per match

Boston River
1.29
Racing Montevideo
1.38

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par
Racing Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Racing Montevideo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Boston River or draw
65%
Boston River or Racing Montevideo
73%
Draw or Racing Montevideo
62%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+
17%
Racing Montevideo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals
72%
Boston River 2+ goals
37%
Boston River 3+ goals
14%
Racing Montevideo 1+ goals
71%
Racing Montevideo 2+ goals
35%
Racing Montevideo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)
52%
Racing Montevideo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

Racing Montevideo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.18 + Racing Montevideo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Racing Montevideo attack 1.18 + Boston River defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Boston River scores more
38%
level
27%
Racing Montevideo scores more
35%

Boston River at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boston River vs Racing Montevideo

Racing Montevideo beat Boston River 3-1 in Primera División - Apertura on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Parque Artigas in Las Piedras.