Boston River 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo

Boston River

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Liverpool Montevideo

3/14/2024

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 5Estadio Campeones Olímpicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Boston River35%

×Draw27%

Liverpool Montevideo39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boston RiverExpected goals in this matchLiverpool Montevideo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.32

Boston River

1.23

Liverpool Montevideo

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 81 away

1.18

creates per match

1.35

1.29

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Boston River

1.18

Liverpool Montevideo

1.35

allows per match

Boston River

1.29

Liverpool Montevideo

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par

Liverpool Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Liverpool Montevideo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Boston River or draw

61%

Boston River or Liverpool Montevideo

73%

Draw or Liverpool Montevideo

65%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+

15%

Liverpool Montevideo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals

71%

Boston River 2+ goals

35%

Boston River 3+ goals

13%

Liverpool Montevideo 1+ goals

73%

Liverpool Montevideo 2+ goals

38%

Liverpool Montevideo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)

47%

Liverpool Montevideo (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

Liverpool Montevideo away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.28 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.18 + Liverpool Montevideo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Liverpool Montevideo attack 1.35 + Boston River defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Boston River scores more

35%

level

27%

Liverpool Montevideo scores more

39%

Liverpool Montevideo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Liverpool Montevideo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff