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Boston River vs Cerro Largo — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Boston River
Boston River
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo
6/17/2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Intermediate Round - 2Estadio Campeones Olímpicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Boston River38%
×Draw29%
Cerro Largo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boston River
1.18
Cerro Largo
1.07

Boston River creates 10% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 78 away

creates per match

Boston River
1.18
Cerro Largo
0.86

allows per match

Boston River
1.29
Cerro Largo
1.18

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par
Cerro Largo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Cerro Largo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Boston River or draw
67%
Boston River or Cerro Largo
71%
Draw or Cerro Largo
62%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+
16%
Cerro Largo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals
69%
Boston River 2+ goals
33%
Boston River 3+ goals
12%
Cerro Largo 1+ goals
66%
Cerro Largo 2+ goals
29%
Cerro Largo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)
54%
Cerro Largo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

Cerro Largo away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.18 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.18 + Cerro Largo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.18

Cerro Largo attack 0.86 + Boston River defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Boston River scores more
38%
level
29%
Cerro Largo scores more
33%

Boston River at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boston River vs Cerro Largo

Cerro Largo beat Boston River 2-0 in Primera División - Apertura on June 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones Olímpicos in Ciudad de Florida.