Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Boston River vs Cerro — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Boston River
Boston River
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cerro
Cerro
5/19/2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 13Estadio Campeones Olímpicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Boston River47%
×Draw26%
Cerro27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boston River
1.46
Cerro
1.04

Boston River creates 40% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 66 away

creates per match

Boston River
1.18
Cerro
0.80

allows per match

Boston River
1.29
Cerro
1.73

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par
Cerro+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Cerro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Boston River or draw
73%
Boston River or Cerro
74%
Draw or Cerro
53%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+
23%
Cerro wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals
77%
Boston River 2+ goals
43%
Boston River 3+ goals
18%
Cerro 1+ goals
65%
Cerro 2+ goals
28%
Cerro 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)
63%
Cerro (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

Cerro away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.18 + Cerro defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cerro attack 0.80 + Boston River defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Boston River scores more
47%
level
26%
Cerro scores more
27%

Boston River at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: Boston River 2–0 Cerro

Boston River beat Cerro 2-0 in Primera División - Apertura on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones Olímpicos in Ciudad de Florida.