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Boston Legacy W vs Washington Spirit W — NWSL Women 2025

Boston Legacy W
Boston Legacy W
Preview
23:00
Washington Spirit W
Washington Spirit W
7/19/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageCentreville Bank Stadium
43%
Washington Spirit W
model favours
31%26%43%

Washington Spirit W score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Boston Legacy W31%
×Draw26%
Washington Spirit W43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boston Legacy W
1.16
Washington Spirit W
1.42

Washington Spirit W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 25 away

creates per match

Boston Legacy W
1.44
Washington Spirit W
1.40

allows per match

Boston Legacy W
1.44
Washington Spirit W
0.88

finishing

Boston Legacy W+0.00on par
Washington Spirit W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston Legacy W ↓

Washington Spirit W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Boston Legacy W or draw
57%
Boston Legacy W or Washington Spirit W
74%
Draw or Washington Spirit W
69%

Winning margin

Boston Legacy W wins by 2+
12%
Washington Spirit W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Boston Legacy W 1+ goals
69%
Boston Legacy W 2+ goals
32%
Boston Legacy W 3+ goals
11%
Washington Spirit W 1+ goals
76%
Washington Spirit W 2+ goals
41%
Washington Spirit W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Boston Legacy W (draw refunded)
42%
Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston Legacy W at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Washington Spirit W away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston Legacy W attack 1.44 + Washington Spirit W defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.16

Washington Spirit W attack 1.40 + Boston Legacy W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Boston Legacy W scores more
31%
level
26%
Washington Spirit W scores more
43%

Washington Spirit W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Boston Legacy W sit 12, Washington Spirit W 2 in the table
  • Boston Legacy W and Washington Spirit W have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
WWDLL
W
LWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Boston Legacy W face Washington Spirit W (NWSL Women)

NWSL Women returns with Boston Legacy W hosting Washington Spirit W. Match starts July 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Boston Legacy W host Washington Spirit W at Centreville Bank Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.