Boston Legacy W vs Kansas City W — NWSL Women 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Boston Legacy W40%
Kansas City W35%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 9 home / 72 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Boston Legacy W ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Boston Legacy W at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches
Kansas City W away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 72 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Boston Legacy W attack 1.44 + Kansas City W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42
Kansas City W attack 1.19 + Boston Legacy W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Boston Legacy W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Boston Legacy W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Kansas City W outscore their xG (2.3 vs 1.6 expected)
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Angel City W
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Bay FC WBoston Legacy W
Washington Spirit WKansas City W
San Diego Wave W
Denver Summit W
Portland Thorns W
Seattle Reign FC W
Orlando Pride W
Utah Royals W
Chicago Red Stars W
North Carolina Courage W
Houston Dash W
Racing Louisville WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Boston Legacy W host Kansas City W on Saturday, 25 July 2026 at 21:00. The match is part of the NWSL Women 2026/2027 season.
Boston Legacy W vs Kansas City W — Match Preview
Boston Legacy W face Kansas City W on July 25, 2026 in this NWSL Women fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Boston Legacy W host Kansas City W at Centreville Bank Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.